Monday, July 10, 2017

Whittier Fire (7/10)

This SBcitizen.com website has been moved to SbitZ.NET

Thanks for your interest in online information and dialog for the Santa Barbara region. This sbCitizen.com website was de-activated after the first few posts and replaced by SbitZ.NET (a shortcut for groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/sbitz). That's a more convenient place for anyone to view freely. With a free Google account you can also sign up to join as a Member and share your questions or comments; "follow" it with a selection of automatic email updates when there's anything new added; and share any photos, videos, links or information via text, email or web browser.

Please see the Introduction on SBitZ.NET for more info. Posts since July 10, 2017 have been placed there, and anyone can read those without sign up. The reason only Members can contribute there, is to reduce the chances of anyone adding advertising, negative or unhelpful posts there. We welcome all positive, friendly and helpful contributions there.

As described below, I had problems with the interface here on sbCitizen.com, so I tried SBitZ.NET which runs on the Google Groups interface. Since I found that much easier to use, I have "deactivated" this site but left it here for the time being in case anyone would like to read the old posts here. Eventually I'll automatically re-route all visitors to this site directly to SBitZ.NET for everyone's convenience.

Original 7/10/2017 Post here on sbCitizen.com:
I've struggled at times with the interface of this google platform for posting updates. Since this fire (and the Alamo & Stone Fires) is mostly dormant, I'm going to post some info about the Whittier Fire on the companion website (google groups) SBitZ.NET to see if it's any easier. I need something that's quick, easy and robust (unlikely to fail or get overloaded in emergencies). Another good thing about SBitZ.NET is that it will probably be easier for others with info to add it there in Comments, and for any volunteers to also contribute pix & video. Plus, it may be easier to post via cellphone so we could add news while on scene.

Anyway, for today's update take a look at SBitz.NET sometime after 3pm when I've posted some stuff there, and let me know what you think. :)

Sunday, July 9, 2017

Whittier Fire (7/9 10:45pm)

Updated 10:45pm - scroll down for the latest.
2am:
As you can see, I couldn't sleep. Edhat did a midnight post with some great info. I managed to find this 1:43am view along the ridge toward the East showing fire on both sides.

Also this map showing where the fire started.
OK, now I'll try again to get some rest. See you in the morning.

Update 2:20pm:
Google has added a Public Alert page for SB County, so far with little on the Whittier Fire. Below are some image files that (depending on web browser) you might be able to click on or download for larger or full-size versions.

Here's the topo chart with composite infrared satellite image overlays for the Whittier Fire:

Here's a zoomed in crop of the same image:


Here's a gMaps link to that easternmost spot just over a mile from Hwy.154 at Old San Marcos Road at about 34°28'56.4"N 119°48'47.0"W (34.482333, -119.813052), and below is a screencap of that from gMaps Satellite view.

Update 3pm: 
Here's a new composite satellite InfraRed (IR) topo map of the fire, indicating that some spot fires popped up to the West since the above earlier map posted at 2:20 7/9.

Update 4:30pm: 
Broadcast Peak looks likely to survive the fire that has just been making a run on it. Most of the transmitters there have been off air since yesterday afternoon, either due to loss of power or preventative shutdown. Either way it's unlikely they'll be broadcasting again until power is reliably on and technicians can clean everything up and check all the equipment. Cable channels are reportedly unaffected, since the stations feed their signals direct rather than broadcast. Here's a 4:11pm view to the North showing how close it came as it was stopped at the ridge but is still burning toward the East.


Looking toward the West at 4:20pm you can see that the area from NNW to West is still burning fiercely.


Update 6pm:
The winds are calmer and more favorable but we still have a temperature inversion (hotter in the mountains), as you can see from this map of Personal Weather Stations (PWS).

The number inside a dot is the temperature, and the "flagpole" points toward where the wind is coming from. The size and number of flags indicates the wind strength (more flags = stronger wind).

Update 6:30pm:
Here's the latest FAA map of Temporary Flight Restrictions (TFRs) showing the ones for the Alamo and Whittier Fires. TFRs are the red boxes, and all flights other than those explicitly authorized by the fire controller are strictly prohibited.

I'm glad not to have seen any reports so far of anyone flying a drone or aircraft into those areas, so that the fire aircraft can hopefully get a solid perimeter set up to help out the exhausted ground crews.

I seeing on radar some probable rain and possible thunderstorms in the region. Hopefully those won't have lightning that starts new fires.

Update 7:15pm: 
Here are the most recent visible and InfraRed (IR) satellite images, both from 6:30pm. The IR shows relative sizes and the locations of the hottest areas of the Alamo & Whittier Fires as white dots.

The visible image shows what the main smoke plumes are doing, along with scattered clouds.


Update 7:45pm: 
Here's the full color satellite view of our region today with IR heat detections overlaid. The smoke plume going toward the NNW is good news for Goleta, possibly worrisome for Santa Ynez.

Update 10:45pm:
It's looking like the Whittier Fire might be calming down, and I am too. This will probably be my last post for tonight, and possibly until there's other big news in the region. Los Padres FS (in command of the fire) said the outlook is promising but still only 5% contained with size estimated at 7,800 acres in their 8:48 report. This 9:30pm IR sat also looks promising, with the heat level of the fire greatly reduced.

Here's a lower-resolution topo chart with the lower-resolution IR sat fire detection circles turned off so the hi-res ones show up better, and the red color pumped up in an image editor to better show the relatively small spot fires I downloaded at 10pm.

Next a series of remote camera night pix from Santa Ynez Peak, that somewhat corresponds with the above IR sat spots. The views are looking North, East (with moonlight at the top just right of center, over the city lights), South and then West where there's still a relatively large fire going near the road.
North from SY Peak 10pm.

East from SY Peak 10pm.

South from SY Peak 10pm.
West from SY Peak 10pm.


Ray Ford posted some of his excellent fire pix. To close for tonight, below are a couple of snaps I took just after sunset from 101 at 154. Here's to a safe and successful night for the fire crews, a quick return home for everyone displaced, a sound sleep for most of us, and a bright tomorrow in dwindling smoke during final cleanup.

Saturday, July 8, 2017

Whittier Fire (7/8 11:30pm)

Updated 7/8 11:30pm - scroll down for the latest

As you may know, there's a fast growing and dangerous fire that started on Hwy.154 near Lake Cachuma. I'm unable to update details until later tonight, but wanted to take a moment to post these aerial photos of the fire taken a little after 6pm. This first pic from offshore of El Capitan gives some context of the fire's size and location late this afternoon.

Next a view as we neared the ridge, including a glimpse of Lake Cachuma.


Below is a zoom pic of a southwestern actively burning area.

Then this zoom pic of Phoschek fire retardant aerial drop.

This last aerial pic from the flight is another look from offshore, this time a zoom showing the towering smoke plume in relation to the ridge line.

After landing back at SBA we were struck by the ominous thick pall of smoke blowing across Goleta and out over the Channel. There was a cool breeze off the water from the South, that was a stark contrast with the hot breath of a mild Sundowner wind from the North we'd just flown in only 1,500' up. Above that was stronger wind carrying all that smoke and a dusting of ash flakes.

Update 7/8 11pm:
The Santa Barbara Airport (KSBA) is reporting 65°F with wind from the SE at 7 MPH. Their latest aviation forecast is for wind shear (basically what locals call a "Sundowner") at 1000 feet altitude from the NNW at 34 MPH until 3am. KIZA (Santa Ynez airport) automated weather is reporting light wind from the West, overcast at 7,000 feet (possibly smoke from the Alamo Fire), and 66°F. The trouble is we still have a "temperature inversion" where it's hotter at higher elevations. For example, personal weather stations in the Painted Cave area are reporting 86-88°F. What this means is that we're likely to see a cool sea breeze in town, but the foothills more than 1,000' above sea level could be in the path of a fast moving fire.

My own guess is that while it's hotter up there and thus more conducive to fire, the greatest danger will be above two or three thousand feet elevation. Apparently the fire is slowing now as it gets lower and less driven by the hot downslope wind we saw at sunset. Fire tends to burn up a slope, which will also help. With lighter winds at the ridge line but more toward the SW, some embers may be blown beyond the hillside active fire line and start spot fires. Luckily we don't seem likely to have a full-on Sundowner with hot dry winds gusting from the North right down to the beach as during the horrible Painted Cave Fire. But people in the hills need to be especially alert, and our already exhausted local fire crews will sure be busy tonight!

Now I'm going to forage for more details online, and will report back here sometime after midnight if I can find any details. Hope everyone can keep safe, and that no more people or structures will be affected. By morning it's possible they can establish some containment lines, especially with the DC-10 "supertanker" stationed nearby at KSMX (Santa Maria) and other aircraft (especially helicopters) possibly stationed even closer at KIZA (Santa Ynez).

Update 7/8 11:30pm:
This 10:30pm low-resolution infrared satellite image shows the Whittier fire active area hotter and larger than the Alamo Fire.

Alamo Fire (Sun. 7/9 3:15pm)

Updated 7/8 3:15pm - scroll down for latest updates in reverse order (oldest on top).
Update 7/9 2:30pm: Google has added a Public Alert page for SB County, so far mostly on the Alamo Fire.
This Initial Saturday 7/8/17 post was 11am (scroll down for latest):
Wow has this fire grown!
The larger orange circles show infrared satellite detection of active burning yesterday, and the smaller red circles show where more detailed infrared satellite fire detections today.

Weather on the fire line looks better than yesterday. Right now the Santa Maria Airport is reporting 71℉, 59% humidity, and wind from the WNW at 6 MPH. But at 1pm they forecast wind at 17 MPH gusting to 23 MPH, so hopefully they'll have some containment lines the fire can't jump by then.

Update 1pm:
I'm having trouble finding current info on this fire. I assume they're doing lots of air drops before the winds pick up and start gusting, but haven't found any details online. The latest from CalFire was at 7:45am reporting 6,000 acres - 10% contained, and it's surely grown since then judging by this latest (noon) satellite image of the smoke plume.
I found this low-resolution outline map of the fire (orange shape) compiled from several sources, but it doesn't really add any info because the fire hasn't yet grown to epic size. The yellow shapes are outlines of older fires.

Update 2:45pm:
Air Quality info online is slow to update, but here's what I found at about 2pm. On top is the noon report, and below the key to color meanings is the forecast.
Here are two low-resolution satellite images from 2pm showing bright white areas in the fire area just below the SLO County line. The image on the left is an indication of the smoke plume reflectivity, and on the right an indication of the heat.

Update 3:15pm:
I found a live webcam of the air tankers at KSMX, confirming my earlier guess that most or all air support is based there. Just now I saw the big jet tanker on the ramp, and a medium size turboprop plane taxi in. Here's the link: Live KSMX Fire Base Webcam. Here's a screencap I did just after the jet was serviced and a tanker truck was driving away.

Update 3:45pm:
I found this NOAA air quality forecast for surface smoke level at 6pm EDT (3pm local). The plume starts South of the fire area because most of the particles are lifted high above the surface by the fire's heat and then begins to settle. Any trend toward a "sundowner" will also bring smoke down to the coast. Guess we'll be smelling the smoke again tonight, and taking health precautions.
I'm going offline for a while, but it looks like local news outlets will be updating. KEYT, KSBY, SLO Trib, Lompoc Record, and SB Indy have all posted updates within the last 15 minutes on gNews Alamo Fire. Edhat's server is apparently swamped again, because their page hasn't been loading for me in the last hour or so. You're invited to post Comments here with news. Please contact me if you'd like to join as a volunteer contributor of news, info, photos or video. Together we can provide a robust new source of local info to support established media during emergencies and disasters,

Update 7/9 3:15pm:
Here's the latest satellite InfraRed (IR) composite on the USGS topo chart. Black circles are the oldest, red the newest indicating that most of the fire is now burning on a long North to South front at the East edge of the fire. There's a spot fire North of that and a larger area burning off the Southwest edge of it.


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